More Survivor Blogging

Hoo boy does Ulong suck! And fairly inexplicably too. I can't really get my head around it. It is true that Koror's by now massively superior numbers mean that it is better able to cull the best and brightest of its tribe at any moment in a way that Ulong can't. But aside from the short work Janu made of Kim in the last immunity challenge, I can't imagine why this particular difficulty would be setting them back. The one big difference is in team cohesion. Koror has never had to go to Tribal Council, while Ulong has been there four times. As I mentioned previously, this has a vicious-cycle effect to it; the more they have to point fingers and blame, the less cohesive they are, and the more they lose. But I have a funny feeling this cycle is ending. Ulong seems to have been pared down to its core players; the most recent bootees have been dead weight to varying degrees. Furthermore, I think they can have the unity and cohesion that comes from suffering so much together. If by some chance, all five Ulongers make it to the merge, they'll be a pretty unbreakable alliance.

The problem for Ulong now is that the tribal shake up is coming soon, and because they have so many fewer people than Koror, most shakeup scenarios result in two teams that are majority Koror. This is not necessarily doom them however, because as Coby noted, there are divisions within Koror. Koror, like Ulong, has a core of strong players, in Tom, Ian, and Gregg and their groupies Katie and Jenn. Tom, Ian, and Gregg are pretty solid--I doubt any of them could be convinced to vote against the others--so if the outsiders of Koror wanted to peel someone off they'd have to go for Jenn or Katie. I don't think it would be Katie. She gives off the vibe of being one of the "cool kids". That is, one of those status-conscious high-schoolers that derives her self-esteem from the status of the group she's in. Katie already doesn't like Caryn (and the feeling is mutual) and as a group, Caryn, Willard, Coby, and Janu just don't carry the same cache as the Tom & Ian gang. (Part of this is because they aren't really a group per se, so much as several individuals on the periphery of the Inner Circle). Jenn would be a smarter target for flipping. If the promos are to be believed (and that's a big if) she and Gregg have a romantic connection, so they probably couldn't turn her against him. It would be dangerous to go after Tom without a pretty solid majority; he would be able to marshal more support from his allies, and he's obviously a lot stronger. If the outsiders of Koror wanted to flip Jenn, they'd have to go after Ian or Katie. Katie would be a better choice because she's less integral to the team and doesn't contribute very tangibly.

A more interesting way for Lesser Koror to rebel would be after a shakeup. Suppose Tom, Ian, Coby, and Willard ended up on a team with Steph, Angie, and Ibrehem and lost the immunity challenge. Everyone's default stance would be Koror vs. Ulong in the voting, but then Coby and Willard would have to realize that if they went into a merge with all of the original Koror, they would be at a disadvantage and would be picked off one by one. Their best play in this situation would be to side with Ulong against Tom or Ian. There is a drawback to this move, however. Of Greater Koror, Lesser Koror, and Ulong, Lesser Koror is the smallest factions, and will need allies going into the merge. Ulong will seek allegiance with Ulong, and the other members of Koror will see the booting of Koror over Ulong as a betrayal, and won't trust the remaining Kororians enough to ally with them.

In the end, even though they're momentarily on the stronger team, Coby, Janu, Willard and Caryn need to realize that they're in the weakest position in the game. Their one shot is that in most tribal shake up scenarios, neither Ulong nor Greater Koror would be able to form majorities against each other without them. They'll be, in effect, a secret swing vote. It would serve them well to coordinate strategy in advance of the tribal shakeup and agree with one another to stick with Koror against Ulong until doing so would cost them a majority with Ulong against Koror. And this might seem counter-intuitive, but while they're still the groups after the shakeup, they should target the members of Ulong and Greater Koror that are the least threat in individual immunity: people like Katie, Jenn or Angie. The reasoning being that if their plan works, the four of them would make it to the merge with three each from Ulong and Greater Koror. What they absolutely don't want is for people outside of their alliance ganging up against them, because they wouldn't have the numbers to stop them. But if they leave standing the greatest individual immunity threats, like Bobby Jon, Tom, or Steph, then they'll want to go after each other, and need Lesser Koror as a source of votes. Should this happen, Lesser Koror should swing between siding with Ulong and Greater Koror, depending on which alliance gets immunity.

Of course, this plan for Lesser Koror depends on a favorable shuffling, one they're most likely to get if it happens randomly, rather than dodgeball-style, like last season. And the trick, I think would be convincing members of Koror or Ulong to vote out weaker members pre-merge. They would have to couch it as something personal (like the Katie/Caryn feud) I think, or if they're switching to vote with Ulong, do so only on the condition they get to pick the bootee. But other than that, I think it's pretty solid, and represents the best path to victory for my favorite player this season (Janu).